Iran War: Iran Opens Fire in the Strait, Will US Respond or TACO?

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Iran appears to have wasted no time following the end of the UN meetings in New York, at the end of which POTUS Trump rejected Iran’s ceasefire offer.

US Made Threatening Moves

As is so often the case, American military moves in West Asia were ominous:

And the data over the past month seems to confirm American claims of successfully routing around the Iranian blockade of the Strait:

The sanctions are having other pernicious effects as well, per the FT:

Iranian pharmacists have warned of a worsening shortage of medicines as the US war and blockade complicate the country’s ability to import and pay for medical drugs.

While the country of 90mn produces most of its own medication domestically, it relies on imports of ingredients from countries including India and buys medicines and vaccines from Europe and elsewhere.
But ministers have acknowledged in recent weeks that securing those supplies has become increasingly difficult.

The US has for months blockaded Iran’s southern ports, the main corridor for the country’s medicine imports, while a growing number of international flights — on which they are also brought in — have been cancelled because of American sanctions on airline service providers in third countries.

Several pharmaceutical factories were also hit directly or indirectly at the height of the US-Israeli bombing campaign, officials said. All this has forced Tehran to tap strategic reserves of medicine and look for alternative overland routes for imports, officials said.

Hadi Ahmadi, a spokesperson for the Iranian Pharmacists Association, said about 60 medicines used for life-threatening diseases, such as for the blood disorder thalassaemia, were in short supply.

Israeli analyst Danny Citrinowicz saw something coming, posting before Trump announced no ceasefire:

What happens the day after Washington says no?

Iranian leaders are also reading the American political calendar. They understand that a major escalation before the midterms could impose significant political and economic costs on the administration, particularly through higher oil and gasoline prices. Trump himself has publicly acknowledged the connection between the Iran conflict, energy prices and the midterm timetable.

If Tehran concludes that Washington wants to avoid a broader confrontation before November, it may decide that escalation, rather than compromise, offers the better path to leverage. The question then becomes whether Iran would move beyond absorbing the economic pressure of the U.S. blockade and take new steps to impose costs on Washington and the global economy, particularly around maritime traffic and energy flows.

The Strait of Hormuz has already become one of Tehran’s principal sources of leverage. Recent negotiations have centered precisely on the tradeoff between reopening the strait and easing the U.S. blockade.

So the administration should evaluate the Iranian proposal against two scenarios, not one. The first is the cost and strategic consequence of accepting a deal that largely revives the previous framework. The second is the likely Iranian response if Washington rejects it.

The real policy question is therefore not only whether Iran’s offer is acceptable. It is whether Washington has a credible strategy for what comes next if it is not.

Fire In the Hormuz

The Hormuz Letter reported:

BREAKING: Iran has launched anti-ship missiles from Sirik in southern Iran toward vessels under US escort in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz, with several large-scale explosions heard in the Strait over the past hour and at least one oil tanker confirmed hit, per initial reports.

Local sources say “a serious naval conflict” is ongoing tonight. The explosions in the past few hours are in the double digits, with further explosions minutes ago around Qeshm Island.

And

BREAKING: Iran’s IRGC has substantially escalated its targeting of vessels in the Strait of Hormuz over the past hours, launching anti-ship cruise missiles and drones while fast-attack boats engage tankers with guided rockets, machine guns and small arms, per initial reports and a senior Iranian source.

At least 3 vessels have been struck and a 4th has turned around, with a second source putting the number struck tonight at up to 6.

And

BREAKING: Iran is laying naval mines in the US-backed southern Omani corridor of the Strait of Hormuz tonight. At least some of the 10+ missiles fired so far carried mines, per initial reports and a senior Iranian source.

Iranian Threats

Warning to ship owners:

Warning from the Persian Gulf Waterways Management Authority to Ship Owners Regarding Transit Through Unauthorized RoutesReports received by this authority indicating that some charterers are forcing vessels to transit through unauthorized routes.

The Iranian Fars News agency posted the following:

Warning from the Persian Gulf Waterways Management Authority to Ship Owners Regarding Transit Through Unauthorized Routes

Reports received by this authority indicating that some charterers are forcing vessels to transit through unauthorized routes.

This action, in addition to creating the risk of financial and personal damages to the vessel, owner, captain, and crew, also imposes restrictions on the future passage of that vessel through the strait.

In the event of confirmed violations of the charters, these companies will be added to the incompatibility list, and the passage of all their vessels through the Strait of Hormuz will be restricted.

Followed soon by this apology from said ship owners:

Ship Owners’ Apology for Unauthorized Passage of Vessel Through the Strait of Hormuz

Following a warning from the Persian Gulf Waterway Management Authority to ship owners regarding the coercion by certain charterers to pass through the illegal route of the Strait of Hormuz, they sent an email apologizing from Iran. Sections of this letter state:

We, the shipowners, hereby formally offer our apologies regarding the unauthorized passage of the vessel through the Strait of Hormuz.

This incident occurred entirely as a result of the mandatory and direct instructions of the charterer. The ship’s captain, under intense commercial pressure, had no choice but to carry out the instructions, and this is what led to the violation.

Warning to enemy navies:

Fars News Agency: IRGC Navy: In the new war, enemy vessels will not be safe even in the Indian Ocean: Deputy Political Officer of the IRGC Navy: If another war occurs, without a doubt, we will attack and strike their vessels and destroyers even in the Indian Ocean.

IRGC Navy: In the new war, enemy vessels will not be safe even in the Indian Ocean

Deputy Political Officer of the IRGC Navy: If another war occurs, without a doubt, we will attack and strike their vessels and destroyers even in the Indian Ocean.

FARS also had this interview with Iranian President Pezeshkian in which he said, “Pezeshkian: We and Yemen did not intervene in the attack on Saudi Arabia’s hinge line. The possibility that Israel carried out this action to inflame the disputes is not far-fetched.”

One US analyst comments:

Much Drama In Iraq

Protests erupted in Baghdad and Basra due to the Iraqi government’s decision to participate in US sanctions on Iranian flights.

This account reads quite a bit of significance into the unrest:

There’s also a kerfluffle about who rescued a tanker owned by Al-Shaghanba tribesmen from Somali pirates. Some claim it was Iraqi tribesmen who flew across the region, boarded a pirate-held tanker, and personally liberated it, others claim the Al-Shaghanba tribesmen worked with Somalia’s Puntland Maritime Police to effect the rescue, others claim it was the Puntland police alone. I’m not in a position to adjudicate this dispute, but it’s an interesting tale regardless.

US funding for Kurds in Peshmerga is over, per 964 Media:

ERBIL — The international coalition’s financial assistance to the Peshmerga has ended with the expiry of a four-year agreement, and the ministry has asked Baghdad to cover the gap by paying Peshmerga salaries on the same basis as federal security forces, a senior official said.

The final payment, covering August and September, was distributed on Thursday, said Lt. Gen. Bakhtiar Mohammed Sadiq, secretary-general of the Ministry of Peshmerga Affairs. The agreement ran from Sept. 21, 2022, to Sept. 21, 2026, with the assistance reduced by 25% each year until it reached zero.

It was part of a memorandum that tied international support to reforming and unifying the Peshmerga under the ministry. The Kurdistan Region formally declared that unification complete on Monday, replacing the party-aligned 70 and 80 commands with two area commands and 11 divisions, and Kurdistan Region President Nechirvan Barzani and Prime Minister Masrour Barzani both called at the ceremony for Baghdad to meet its obligations on Peshmerga pay. Coalition countries have supported the reform with advisers, training, equipment and logistics, and Peshmerga officials are seeking bilateral military cooperation with them after the mission ends on Sept. 30.

Saudi Arabia Takes Its Licks, But Tries to Keep It on the Down Low

Saudis Hit Civilian Infrastructure in Yemen

Around the YouTubes

Ali Alizadeh is a London-based Iranian-British political analyst who sees the hand of a dead man in today’s scenarios.

Michael Farris talks to US naval vet Jim Webb.

Former Pakistani soldier Adil Raja speaks to Yemeni spokesman Hussain Albukhaiti.

Stay safe, y’all!

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